Friday, February 15, 2008

New Texas Presidential Polls Differ

I just stumbled across the new Texas Credit Union League Poll of Texas Primary Voters, which offers a different take than the most recent ARG data (which I posted earlier today).

Here's the Democratic data from TCUL:
Clinton - 49%
Obama - 41%
And for the GOP:
McCain - 45%
Huckabee - 41%
Paul - 6%
ARG shows Obama ahead, while TCUL has Clinton in the lead. Both polls were released in the last day or two, and both were based on very recent data (within the past week). Why the difference?

It looks like the TCUL poll reached voters identified specifically as Democratic party members, while the ARG data targeted voters who were likely to vote in the Democratic primary, regardless of their current party affiliation. The results appear to suggest that Obama is picking up significant support from Republican and independent voters who plan to cross party lines and vote on the Democratic ballot come 4 March.

What's your take on these dueling polls? Will Obama's crossover appeal hold on election day?

Related Posts:
New Texas Poll Numbers (3 February)
(Another) New Texas Poll Released (15 February)

Hat Tip: Postcards
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