The Next Election May Hinge On...

Soccer moms? Nope. NASCAR Dads? Wrong again. The new swing voter bloc in the upcoming election cycle may be disenchanted Wal-Mart voters according to Ryan Sager over at RealClearPolitics.

What's Wal-Mart got to do with anything? Not a whole lot, except as a symbol of a particular type of voter: largely Southern, rural, lower-middle-class, female, socially conservative -- not big fans of tax cuts, but huge fans of government programs. In other words, a libertarian conservative's worst nightmare.

Sager looks at some data from pollster John Zogby that shows frequent Wal-Mart shoppers (estimated at 20% of the US population) seem to have had an overwhelming change of heart when it comes to the GOP. 85% of them voted for Bush in the last election, but they now give him just a 35% approval rating. Further...

51% of Wal-Mart voters agreed with the statement that it's "time for the Democrats to take over and run" Congress -- as opposed to just 31 percent who think "Republicans deserve to retain control."

That's quite a precipitous drop that the Republicans need to address, even if the analysis is overly simplified.

Hat tip: Clicked.